MarketSpinner_20260720

20 July 2026 THE WEEK THAT WAS MARKET MOVES • Tough week, as re -escalation in Iran pushed oil prices up 12$ (Brent $88/ bbl), while doubts around the AI trade led SOX into bear market ( - 20% from 22/6 peak). • Despite solid earnings from the likes of ASML or TSMC (both reporting strong demand), Tech stocks tumbled in a "Momentum crash". Impressive release of Chinese Moonshot's new Kimi K3 model fanned concerns about the pricing power of top LLM providers. • Oi prices +16% & EUR gas prices +18% … bearish for bonds, e.g. 2y Schatz yield +14bp.
• Treasuries resilient on softer than expected US June CPI (3.5% y/y, core 2.6%). Implied Fed pricing cooled off from +37bp this year to +31bp. • Solid US data e.g. Retail Sales (June), Beige Book and a strong earnings season start (especially banks). COMING UP! KEY EVENTS • ECB broadly expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday. ECB bank lending survey due on Tuesday. • Flash PMIs for July due on Friday… global economy steady. • Japan CPI for June on Friday should see small uptick, breaking recent trend. • Today, Andy Burnham will become the 7th UK PM in a decade. UK inflation & labour market data this week. • Busy week for corp. earnings, with Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, SK Hynix, SAP etc. all reporting Time Market Event Period Consensus Previous 21 Jul 11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jul 18.0 10.5 24 Jul 01:30 Japan CPI, Ex Fresh Food YY Jun 1.6% 1.4% 24 Jul 02:30 Japan S&P Mfg PMI Flash SA Jul 54.8 24 Jul 10:00 Euro Zone S&P MFG Flash PMI Jul 51.7 51.4 24 Jul 10:00 Euro Zone S&P Services Flash PMI Jul 49.8 49.4 24 Jul 15:45 United States S&P Mfg PMI Flash Jul 54.4 53.9 24 Jul 15:45 United States S&P Svcs PMI Flash Jul 51.5 51.2 24 Jul 16:00 United States New Home Sales-Units Jun 605k 580k Rating updates: Bulgaria, Cz. Rep., Turkey, Tunisia (Moody's) A CHART SPEAKS A THOUSAND WORDS IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL Re-escalation + Dispersion = Caution ≠ Capitulation A series of tit -for-tat attacks between the US and Iran over the weekend is keeping oil prices under pressure. Our core scenario remains a contained re -escalation, unlikely to derail steady global growth. However, slower traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will keep inflation above target for longer. We recommend neutralising duration in EUR while maintaining a small US short; one swallow (a softer June CPI) does not make a summer. With recession risks still low, credit should stay resilient, helped by supportive technicals such as limited supply in the coming weeks. We have trimmed our equity overweight, not only because seasonal patterns become less supportive later in the summer. Global equities rallied strongly in April –May but are showing signs of fatigue. Strikingly, equity dispersion has surged (chart), while rotation has triggered a sharp drawdown in momentum strategies this month. The main shift has occurred within IT, where semiconductor stocks have entered a bear market after a massive Q2 rally. Dispersion does not necessarily signal a correction, but it often points to greater vulnerability and strengthens the case for broader sector and geographic diversification. On the positive side, while concerns about LLM monetisation remain a concern (first DeepSeek, now Kimi), we see no sign of fatigue in AI capex plans, which continue to support global growth. So does the wave of regulatory easing: the EC is now proposing lower capital requirements for EU banks (leverage ratio), following similar moves in the US and UK. Vincent Chaigneau(Vincent.Chaigneau@generali-invest.com) (Vincent.Chaigneau@generali -invest.com) TO THE CORE Artificial Analysis ranked Kimi K3 ahead of Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 on some frontier benchmarks, making it the first Chinese open -weight model to achieve that milestone. 102030405060 515253545556575 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026VIX Dispersion (RHS)S&P volatility & dispersion Implied, 30 -day, % Source: CBOE, Bloomberg, GenAM 60708090100110120130140150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JulS&P500 Semi-conductors Hardware Software IT ServicesNot all IT is equal Source: S&P, Bloomberg, GenAM

20 July 2026 This document is based on information and opinions which Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio has obtained from sources within and outside of the Generali Group . While such information is believed to be reliable for the purposes used herein, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made that such information or opinions are accurate or complete . The information, opinions es-timates and forecasts expressed in this document are as of the date of this publication and represent only the judgment of Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio and may be subject to any change without notification . It shall not be considered as an explicit or implicit recommendation of investment
strategy or as investment advice . Before subscribing an offer of investment services, each potential client shall be given every document provided by the regulations in force from time to time, documents to be carefully read by the client before making any investment choice . Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio may have taken or, and may in the future take, investment decisions for the portfolios it manages which are contrary to the views expressed herein . Generali Asset
Management S.p. A. Società di gestione del risparmio relieves itself from any responsibility concerning mistakes or omissions and shall not be considered responsible in case of possible damages or losses related to the improper use of the information
herein provided . It is recommended to look over the regulation, available on our website www .generali -am.com. Generali Asset Management S.p. A. Società di gestione del risparmio is part of the Generali Group which was established in 1831 in Trieste as Assicurazioni Generali Austro Italiche .Sources for charts and tables: Datastream, Bloomberg, own calculationsIMPORTANT INFORMATIONVincent CHAIGNEAU Head of Research vincent.chaigneau@generali-invest.com vincent.chaigneau@generali -invest.com Dr. Thomas HEMPELL CFA, Head of Macro & Market Research thomas.hempell@generali-invest.com thomas.hempell@generali -invest.com Elisa BELGACEM Head of Cross -Asset Quant & Dev, Senior Credit Strategist elisa.belgacem@generali-invest.com elisa.belgacem@generali -invest.com Michele MORGANTI Head of Insurance & AM Research, Senior Equity Strategist michele.morganti@generali-invest.com michele.morganti@generali -invest.com Elisabeth ASSMUTH Research Operations elisabeth.assmuth@generali-invest.com elisabeth.assmuth@generali -invest.com Vladimir OLEINIKOV Senior Quantitative Analyst vladimir.oleinikov@generali-invest.com vladimir.oleinikov@generali -invest.com Dr. Thorsten RUNDE Senior Quantitative Analyst thorsten.runde@generali-invest.com thorsten.runde@generali -invest.com Dr. Florian SPÄTE CIIA, Senior Bond Strategist florian.spaete@generali-invest.com florian.spaete@generali -invest.com Guillaume TRESCA Senior Emerging Market Strategist guillaume.tresca@generali-invest.com guillaume.tresca@generali -invest.com Dr. Martin WOLBURG CIIA, Senior Economist martin.wolburg@generali-invest.com martin.wolburg@generali -invest.com Paolo ZANGHIERI Senior Economist paolo.zanghieri@generali.com paolo.zanghieri@generali.com Jakub KRÁTKÝ GI CEE Financial Analyst jakub.kratky@generali.com jakub.kratky@generali.com